Weekly Freight Report: September 18, 2026
Trucking capacity is still leaving the market, and the carriers that remain say the correction is only in its second or third inning. A year of licensing enforcement, closed CDL schools, a diesel benchmark that just cleared $6 a gallon, and the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling are all pulling trucks off the road at once, and shippers are already running minibids to lock in coverage before the 2027 bid season opens. Overseas, drone attacks shut the Saudi pipeline that had been the workaround for the Strait of Hormuz, where transits fell to four ships a day, while container lines keep moving services back through Suez even as Houthi forces take ground at the Bab el-Mandeb. Closer to home, the federal purchasing restriction on Canadian goods took effect and rail dwell at Los Angeles and Long Beach stretched to nearly a week. One reminder before the stories: as of today, September 18, CBP can void the importer number of any company with inaccurate Form 5106 information on file, so if you have not confirmed yours, do it now. Here is what changed and what it means for your shipments.
Truckload Capacity Is Still Leaving the Market, and Carriers Call It the Early Innings
At an investor conference this week, executives from the largest truckload carriers said the capacity correction is only in its second or third inning. Four forces are pulling trucks off the road at once: a year of licensing and ELD enforcement, the forced closure of sham CDL schools, a diesel spike that small fleets with no surcharge mechanism cannot absorb, and the Supreme Court’s Montgomery ruling on broker liability, which has brokers and shippers vetting carriers far more tightly. One brokerage has cut its approved carrier list to 14,000 from a peak of 60,000, and executives expect a large segment of small carriers will not qualify for liability insurance at all or will find the cost prohibitive. Shippers are responding with minibids in the one-way market and a sharp rise in interest in dedicated fleets, and carriers say demand is no longer the constraint on their growth, supply is. The 2027 contract bid season opens in the next 30 to 60 days, in the middle of peak, when supply is tightest. If you have lanes that depend on the spot market, get them under contract or dedicated coverage before that window opens.
Federal Purchasing Restriction on Canadian Goods Takes Effect as Trump Threatens Tariffs on Europe
On September 16 the administration made good on its plan to restrict Canadian goods from federal government purchases, the follow-through on the General Services Administration order announced last week. The same day, the president said he would put “very serious tariffs” on the European Union, or stop trading with Europe on some goods, if he judges the EU’s proposal to make Canada its first associate member to be a hostile act. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the offer in her state of the union address with Prime Minister Mark Carney in the room. What associate membership would involve is undefined and negotiations could take years. The 50% US tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods stay in place, with Canadian counter-duties on a similar value of US products, and no formal talks have resumed even as the president said a deal could come “fairly soon.” For now this is a new front to watch, not a new duty to pay. If you source from Europe, note that the legal authority for any EU penalty is unclear, so map the lanes you would need to reroute rather than acting on it today.
Drone Attacks Shut the Saudi Pipeline That Bypassed Hormuz, Where Transits Fell to Four a Day
The 1,200 kilometer East-West pipeline, which carried as much as 7 million barrels a day from the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and had been Saudi Arabia’s main way around the Strait of Hormuz, was shut on September 10 after drone attacks. Aramco is working to bypass the damaged section and restore about half the pipeline’s capacity within days, with full capacity expected in roughly six weeks. Crude in London is above $107 a barrel, European customers are seeing delayed deliveries from Yanbu, and Aramco has sold about 20 million barrels to Asian refiners for pickup just outside Hormuz to cover part of the gap. Through the strait itself, Reuters data showed just four transits on Tuesday against a 10-day average of 18, with no very large crude carriers or LNG tankers moving. Marine fuel is following crude: Singapore VLSFO sits near $908 a ton, more than double its January 1 price, and Fujairah is still running at about 40% of its prewar bunkering volume. Expect ocean fuel surcharges to hold or rise through October, and build the six-week repair timeline into any cost forecast you are putting together now.
The Diesel Benchmark Clears $6 at $6.285 as Futures Set a Record Going Back to 1978
The Department of Energy weekly retail diesel average, the number most fuel surcharges are calculated from, rose 31.8 cents to $6.285 a gallon effective September 14, the highest in the series’ history and up $1.707 since the first week of July. Hours later, ultra-low sulfur diesel futures settled at $5.262 a gallon, the highest settlement since the contract began in 1978 and only the second time it has ever closed above $5. The national average is now 68.1% above the same week last year. A power outage at ExxonMobil’s 264,000 barrel a day Joliet refinery and the Saudi pipeline shutdown added to the pressure, and Chevron’s CEO said it is “harder to envision a scenario where prices soften quickly.” Large contract carriers are mostly insulated by their surcharge programs. Small spot carriers are not, and analysts are warning of failures and stoppages among them. Every fuel surcharge on your freight resets off this benchmark, so recheck your surcharge tables against the new number this week.
Container Lines Move More Services Back Through Suez as Houthi Forces Take Ground at Bab el-Mandeb
Suez Canal container net tonnage reached 72.1 million tons through August, up 54.2% from the same period last year, and the return picked up speed this week. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will shift four more Gemini services, AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2, from the Cape of Good Hope back to Suez, joining the AE15 and AE19 loops already using the canal, and COSCO made its first southbound canal transit since the crisis began with the 24,188 TEU OOCL Portugal. The route cuts thousands of miles and days off Asia to Europe transits, which means new schedules and new arrival windows for anything booked on those loops. The security picture is moving the other way. Houthi forces captured Mocha and moved onto islands around the Bab el-Mandeb this month, the strait every Suez-bound ship must pass, though they have so far limited their declared blockade to Saudi vessels and told US officials they will not target American or Israeli ships. Both carriers said the routing depends on stability in the Red Sea and can reverse. If you have cargo on an Asia to Europe or Middle East service, confirm which routing your specific sailing is on and plan for the transit time to change with little notice.
Rail Dwell at Los Angeles and Long Beach Stretches to Nearly a Week on a 1.88 Million TEU Month
The San Pedro Bay ports handled 1,875,899 TEUs in August, close to a record, and Long Beach alone posted its busiest August ever at 919,992 TEUs, up 2% from a year earlier. Truck-bound containers kept moving: local truck dwell averaged 2.95 days, down slightly from 3.03 in July and in line with the past year. Rail-bound containers did not. Rail dwell rose to 6.75 days from 6.34 in July, the highest point in the past year according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, which means boxes headed inland by rail sat at the terminal for nearly a week on average before departing. Union Pacific and BNSF both saw network performance slow in late spring on a smaller import surge, and the fall shipping period will test inland intermodal capacity further. If your import freight rides the rail out of Southern California to the Midwest or South, add most of a week to your planning and consider transloading to truck for time-sensitive loads.
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