Weekly Freight Report: August 28, 2026
The pause did not hold. Talks between Washington and Ottawa collapsed over the weekend, 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods took effect Saturday, and Canada answered Tuesday with counter-duties on $27.6 billion of American products starting September 8. Diesel set a new high for the war at $5.652 a gallon on record-low distillate inventories, the Panama Canal cut daily transit slots on drought concern, and Iran and Oman put a revenue-sharing agreement on the table for the Strait of Hormuz without reopening it. Add $106.6 billion in tariff refunds already paid out and a container orderbook approaching two-fifths of the fleet on the water, and this was a week of hard dates and hard numbers. Here is what changed and what it means for your shipments.
Canada Answers With $27.6 Billion in Counter-Duties, Effective September 8
Negotiations collapsed over the weekend, the US imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods Saturday, and on Tuesday Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Ottawa will match them dollar for dollar and rate for rate. The counter-tariffs apply rates of 15%, 25% and 50% to roughly $27.6 billion of US imports beginning September 8, covering seafood, dairy, paper products, furniture, apparel, cosmetics, tools, motorcycles, steel and aluminum. That list is about 8% of everything the US ships north. Prime Minister Mark Carney said US negotiators asked too much and offered too little, and the sticking point on the US side was medium and heavy-duty trucks, which Washington says were never part of the proposed relief. Trucks carry more than half the value of US-Canada freight, so the pressure lands first at Detroit, Port Huron and Buffalo. If you move anything cross-border, re-run your landed costs against the September 8 date before you quote another load.
Diesel Sets a New High for the War at $5.652 a Gallon
The Department of Energy weekly average, the number most fuel surcharges are calculated from, rose another 19.8 cents to $5.652 a gallon, passing the April 6 high of $5.643 and setting a new mark for the period since military action against Iran began in March. That is 39.5 cents in two weeks. The supply side explains the move: US distillate inventories fell to 103.4 million barrels in the week ending August 21, the lowest seasonal level on record, with reduced refined fuel exports through Hormuz and Russia’s export ban both pulling barrels out of the market. Wholesale diesel on the CME did turn down 22.72 cents on Monday after the Treasury Secretary signaled economic pressure on Iran rather than renewed military action, though retail has not followed yet. Distillate demand normally peaks around October when heating, harvest and planting overlap, so build surcharge exposure into your fourth quarter budget rather than planning around relief.
CBP Has Paid Out $106.6 Billion in Tariff Refunds, and the Retail Numbers Show the Spread
CAPE, the CBP system built to return the IEEPA duties the Supreme Court invalidated, has paid $106.6 billion as of August 21. The second quarter earnings calls put real numbers on what recovery looks like at scale. Walmart has now received substantially all of the $2.9 billion it expected and is putting the money into price cuts. Target booked $994 million as a reduction in cost of sales and expects more to come. Home Depot has recovered $730 million, while Lowe’s has recovered $80 million, and Amazon, Caterpillar, Nintendo and Kimberly-Clark have all collected as well. The distance between those last two numbers is the part worth studying, because how much you get back depends on your entry mix, your liquidation status and the order your claims are filed in. If you imported under IEEPA and have not filed, that gap is the argument for having your entries reviewed now.
The Panama Canal Cuts Daily Transit Slots on Drought Concern
An August 20 advisory trims Neopanamax bookings from 10 daily slots to 9 effective September 3, and Panamax slots from 26 to 25 on the same date, then down to 23 effective September 15. The canal pointed to below-expected rainfall in its watershed tied to El Nino, noted that its water-saving measures and the arrival of the rainy season have not been enough, and framed the reduction as protecting the long-term sustainability of transit operations. This sits on top of the draft restrictions and the carrier surcharges we covered last week, so it is the same squeeze tightening a second time. Fewer slots means more competition for the ones left and more pressure in the booking auction exactly as peak season cargo moves. If your freight routes through the canal, add schedule buffer to your September Gulf and East Coast arrivals now.
Iran and Oman Agree to Share Hormuz Revenue, But the Strait Stays Restricted
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on August 26 that the two countries have settled each side’s share of the strait’s waters and of its revenues, going further than the joint foreign ministry statement a day earlier, which described an interim framework for resuming ship transits and said nothing about fees. Iranian officials have been consistent that a navigation agreement with Oman is not the same as reopening the waterway. Tehran ties any normalization to the US honoring the memorandum signed in June, including lifting sanctions and the naval blockade on its ports and unfreezing Iranian assets abroad, none of which Washington has signaled it will do. The previous 60-day interim deal lapsed earlier this month after repeated breaches. Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war, which is why this file sits underneath your fuel surcharge whether or not you ship anything through the region.
The Containership Orderbook Reaches Nearly Two-Fifths of the Fleet
Roughly 13.1 million TEUs are on order against an operating fleet of about 33.8 million TEUs, an orderbook to fleet ratio near 38.7%, and the second quarter alone added contracts for 164 vessels totaling around 866,000 TEUs. Fleet growth is running about 4.2% this year against container trade growth of roughly 3% to 4%. The pipeline is concentrated in big ships: Global Ship Lease, using Maritime Strategies International data, put 55.2% of the orderbook in vessels of 10,000 TEUs and larger, which is exactly the tonnage that serves transpacific and Asia to Europe. Feeder and intermediate sizes look tighter, because that fleet is older and has seen relatively little ordering. Carriers manage capacity actively through blank sailings and lay-ups, so treat this as context for your contract season conversations rather than a number you can plan a budget around.
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