Weekly Freight Report: August 14, 2026
This week is about deadlines. Canada has until August 19 to reach a deal before 50% tariffs land on roughly $20 billion of its goods, and the comment window on Commerce’s proposed metal-tariff expansion closes August 27. CBP crossed $100 billion in IEEPA refunds paid while a court fight keeps some claims frozen, and Washington turned an AI screening system loose on transshipment. On the water, the Asia to East Coast rate set a new high of $9,400 per FEU and the Panama Canal is tightening drafts in the middle of peak season. Here is what moved and what it means for your cost per shipment.
Canada Has Until August 19 to Head Off 50% Tariffs on $20 Billion in Goods
The United States and Canada are up against an August 19 deadline, with 50% duties threatened on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods if talks fail, covering products from milk and beer to plywood. Autos sit at the center of the negotiation: Canadian vehicles currently face 25%, and Ottawa is pushing for the 15% rate Japan and South Korea secured, along with Section 232 relief on steel and aluminum. Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Canada will not accept a bad deal, while Washington wants retaliatory measures on US alcohol dropped and more access to Canada’s dairy market. Margins in cross-border auto supply chains are already thin, so wherever these rates land will show up quickly in landed costs. If you move freight across the northern border, this is the date to watch next week.
CBP Crosses $100 Billion in IEEPA Refunds Paid, With Some Claims Still Frozen
CBP has now paid out more than $100 billion in IEEPA tariff refunds, against $128.7 billion in accepted claims and an estimated $166 billion total owed. The reconciliation feature added in late June has pulled in 2.2 million submissions, but importers whose entries were already finally liquidated remain locked out of the portal while a Justice Department appeal challenges whether courts can order those refunds at all. That stalled group is roughly $11.4 billion, about 7% of the total. Last week we covered importers selling their claims at a discount for cash now; this week’s numbers show most of the money is actually flowing. If your entries sit in the stalled category, the appeal is the thing to watch.
Asia to East Coast Rate Breaks Out to a Record $9,400 per FEU
Asia to US East Coast spot rates broke out of their month-long hold near $9,000 and hit a new high of $9,400 per FEU this week, while West Coast rates jumped 11% in a single week. Demand is doing the work: consumer spending has held up better than forecast, importers kept ordering through the July tariff uncertainty, and the National Retail Federation now expects elevated volumes to run through September instead of tapering in August. That is a longer, hotter peak than most budgets assumed. If you have East Coast freight booked at spot, this is the market you are bidding into.
White House Turns an AI Screening System Loose on Transshipment
The White House is deploying an AI-driven screening system aimed at tariff evasion through transshipment, after flagging more than 40 countries as elevated risk and estimating $75 billion in illegally rerouted goods over the past year, worth $19 billion to $34 billion in lost duties. The system cross-references shipment routing histories, factory ownership and production capacity, packaging patterns and port X-ray images to catch cargo whose paperwork does not match its origin. Expect more documentation requests and more container exams, including for legitimate operations. If you have moved sourcing to a China-plus-one model, the burden of proving where goods are actually made just went up, so get origin files in order before the questions arrive.
Panama Canal Draft Restrictions Become the Wildcard of Peak Season
The Panama Canal’s tightening draft restrictions are turning into the wildcard of peak season, keeping some carriers from fully loading vessels bound for the East and Gulf coasts, with limits headed toward 47.5 feet in early September. The squeeze is not at the level of the 2023 drought crisis, when transit cuts produced queues and auction premiums, but it arrives exactly as record East Coast demand needs every slot of capacity. Lighter loads pull effective capacity out of the market even while transit counts hold steady. If your freight routes through the canal, watch for surcharges and allocation notices as the September adjustments take effect.
Two Weeks Remain to Comment on the Metal Tariff Expansion
The window is closing on Commerce’s proposal to pull 14 more categories of steel, aluminum and copper derivative products into the Section 232 tariffs, which we covered last week. Comments are due August 27, and the proposed rates run 25% for most goods, 15% for self-loading agricultural trailers, and 50% for steel gas containers, applied to the container rather than the contents. Once the window closes, affected importers lose their shot at shaping the final list. If any of your inputs are mostly metal by weight, check your HTS codes against the proposed categories and file while it still counts.
Seven States Warn the Rail Merger Remedy Could Raise Shipping Costs
Attorneys general from seven states told the Surface Transportation Board that Union Pacific’s proposed merger with Norfolk Southern could raise shipping costs, joining industrial shippers who filed their own opposition. Their target is the deal’s Committed Gateway Pricing remedy, which they say would cover just 0.9% of US rail traffic, and by setting protected rates at the 70th percentile could leave many eligible shippers paying more than they do today. The protection would also likely expire with the five-year oversight window. The combined railroad would control more than half the Class I market as the first true transcontinental network. If your freight rides rail on captive lanes, the remedy details matter more than the merger headline.
New York Blitz Puts 126 Trucks Out of Service in a Single Campaign
New York State Police put 126 trucks out of service during a late-July enforcement campaign on the Thruway, out of 348 commercial vehicle inspections, a 36% out-of-service rate. The Check Your Height campaign targeted bridge strikes but wrote up nearly 1,000 violations across the board, from equipment failures to license and registration issues. It is the latest in a national wave of blitzes that keep pulling trucks and drivers off the road in volume. Every sidelined vehicle is capacity out of the market, and enforcement at this intensity is becoming a standing feature of the truckload landscape rather than a one-week event.
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